Will Windows 7 Succeed?

Much is being hypothesized about the potential success or failure of Microsoft's soon-to-be-released Windows 7 operating system. Despite being a fan of Apple and their growing marketshare, I don't think Macs represent the biggest challenge for Windows 7 adoption. Far from it, actually. In my opinion, two things stand in the way of Microsoft's new offering - Windows XP and apathy. Or maybe they are one and the same thing.

Windows XP runs on untold millions of computers around the world, likely chiming in at 80% of the market. Despite even dropping support for it, Microsoft couldn't dethrone the XP juggernaut when launching Vista. Aside from the battering it received in the press, apathy to upgrade from XP was probably Vista's biggest enemy.

Amongst the lower rungs of the market, operating systems aren't so much chosen as they are included with what you get when you get a new computer. Windows is squeezed somewhere between free and just under a low pain threshold in a very price conscious market. I would argue that the people in the position to make an operating system upgrade decision on the vast sea of computers running XP just doesn't care enough to do anything about it. Vista's reputation only hurts Microsoft's chances of breaking through, even if Windows 7 is truly a better product.

Microsoft is selling operating system licenses. By contrast, Apple is selling hardware units. Its important to remember that Microsoft is concentrating on winning the marketshare game while Apple is focusing on the profit game. Over 90% of the above $1,000 laptop market belongs to Apple so it would seem Microsoft has relegated itself to the low margin business. This is a direct result of the difference in corporate focus between the two companies. I would even go to say that it is a direct reflection of the CEOs of their respective companies. Jobs vs. Balmer. Quality vs. Quantity.

My prediction is that Windows 7 will do better than Vista but never reach the pervasiveness of XP. In other words, it won't quite slay the XP dragon. But nor will that matter. Until the corporate marketshare focus issue is addressed, Microsoft will continue it's seemingly inevitable slide into irrelevance. Marketshare is something you get after you have a great product. In other words, its a lagging indicator of where you once were and says little about where you might be headed.

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Comments (3)

Dave Murrow from Highlands Ranch, Colorado, USA

Anders,
First let me say I have enjoyed your podcasts and am glad that there is another history/technology junkie out there.

I just want to comment that I think you go a bit far in the Microsoft bashing (i.e. implying a lack of quality, a throwback to past glory). While Microsoft and Apple have different business models, and appeal to different consumer classes, they are both very successful. And if fact they need each other to both stimulate the competitive juices that drive innovation and to stimulate demand.

And, I agree that the phenomenal penetration (and adequacy) of XP is a big hurdle for any new microsoft product. However, market share and the leverage it provides are far from irrelevant. They may not be innovative, which is what I think you really mean, but they will continue to be relevant as long as 80% of workplace computers run their OS, Office, networking, and sharing apps.

Anders from Boston, USA

Dave, thanks for the comment. Marketshare is like the unemployment rate - it is an indicator that heavily lags what is really going on. In technology, if you don't have something interesting in the pipeline, you are soon to be completely irrelevant. In Microsoft's case, everything interesting in the pipeline seems to be either quashed, (database filesystem for Vista was axed in favor of shipping Vista on time) off the mark, (Windows Mobile) or irrelevant. (Microsoft Surface) So while they aren't irrelevant in terms of marketshare now, I doubt that they are making the moves to keep that marketshare. This is why I say they are continuing their slide into irrelevance. When was the last time Microsoft had a product you were fundamentally excited about?

Nick L from Bristol, UK

I do not think Microsoft have the lions share of crap coders or problems. Apple's recent history has been a joke - I own and repair both.

Apple's QA seems to have left town months ago - shipping factory broken iMac's, the replacement 27" iMacs reported to have ripping and tearing graphics, coma-mode iPhones with a fix that killed wi-fi and the amazing way the coders (having been told about the problem in Leopard) blindly copied the data deletion bug into Snow Leopard.

Apple are too busy trying to be all things to all people and failing on the fine details they used to be good at ensuring were correct.

My prediction is that Windows 7 will continue to grow in market share mainly because business are accepting it already and users are happy to sing it's praises. Apple will continue with a the odd percentage rise and a price increase every time the update Store website.